Peer benchmarking · 3Q 2026 results week

Investors punished Kaspi for a broken growth promise and rewarded TBC for a clean record quarter

Both stocks moved against their markets, so each reaction was about the company. Kaspi cut a growth target it had reaffirmed in August. TBC hit every target it had set, a week after a scare had knocked its shares down.

● Kaspi.kz (KSPI) · since 3Q results
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● TBC Bank Group (TBCG) · since 3Q results
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1 · Exec summary

What happened, in order

Kaspi.kz: down after a broken growth promise

  • 10 Aug · 2Q resultsReaffirmed ~20% FY26 Marketplace GMV growth and signalled a faster second half. Raised the dividend 18% to KZT1,000. Shares +10% in three days.
  • Jul – SepThe tenge strengthened ~8% vs the dollar in the quarter (₸481 → ₸441). Imports got cheaper and the average price per item sold fell 8%.
  • 9 Nov · 3Q results, before the US openMarketplace GMV grew only +8% (+17% in 1H). The FY target was cut to ~12% from ~20%; EBITDA guidance (~5%) was kept.
  • Same releaseReported revenue +1% (+18% at constant currency); net income +1%. Profit recovery still guided for 2027, as in August. Dividend held flat, and buybacks deferred to 2027.
  • Reaction

TBC: up after a record quarter cleared a scare

  • 29 – 30 OctLocal accounts of TBC Uzbekistan showed a loss and NPLs of 13.4%, the likely trigger for a drop (peer BGEO ).
  • 6 Nov · 3Q results, before the London openRecord net profit GEL404m (+10%), ROE 23.2%, cost of risk down to 1.3%. All 2026–28 targets reaffirmed. New GEL50m buyback.
  • Same day · callUzbek cost of risk came in below what management had indicated in August. The CFO pointed investors to the group's IFRS accounts, not the local ones.
  • 6 Nov · reaction
  • 9 Nov
Growth was not the difference. What changed versus the plan was: Kaspi lowered a target it had reaffirmed three months earlier, while TBC met every target and beat its own guidance on Uzbek risk costs.
KSPITBCG

Prices in USD, rebased to 100 at each stock's last close before its results. Hover or tap the chart for daily values.

2 · Why Kaspi fell

Kaspi promised faster growth in August; the tenge broke that promise by November

The business still grew 18% in constant currency. The market reacted to the one thing that changed: the growth target.

~20%
Aug: GMV target reaffirmed, faster 2H signalled. Stock +10% [K4 p.12; K5]
₸481 → ₸441
Tenge strengthened ~8% vs USD during 3Q [K4 p.17; K1 p.11]
20% → 12%
Nov: 3Q GMV +8%, so the FY target was cut [K2 s.23]
−2.4%
Fell pre-market, right after the release and before the call
1

The growth target it had just reaffirmed was cut

In August management called the ~20% GMV target "comfortably on track" and expected "faster trends in the second half". Instead, 3Q growth halved to +8%. The cut was the only guidance change, and the stock fell within an hour of the 07:14 ET release, before the 08:00 call. [K5; K1 p.18]

2

A stronger tenge and a weaker lira shrank the reported numbers

Management attributes the slowdown "entirely" to cheaper imports after the tenge's rise: items sold +24%, but price per item −8%. The lira's 32% fall vs the tenge cut Türkiye's reported revenue by 35%. [K3; K1 p.13, p.21]

3 · Why TBC rose

A clean record quarter cleared up an Uzbekistan scare, then the sector rallied

The rally partly recovered a sharp drop eight days earlier. The results and the call answered the question behind that drop.

–
30 Oct: local Uzbek accounts show a loss and NPLs of 13.4% [T9]
GEL 404m
6 Nov: record profit (+10%); Uzbek cost of risk falling [T1 p.5–6]
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Opened ~+7%, faded through the afternoon [T6]
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9 Nov: top STOXX 600 riser on a strong day for banks [T8]
1

A record quarter with lower risk costs

All 2026–28 targets reaffirmed (loans 15%+, ROE 23%+, payout 25–45%). Uzbek cost of risk of 10.8% was "lower than the levels that we indicated… in August". [T1 p.5–6; T3 0:14:01]

2

Relief after the 30 Oct scare

3

Sector tailwind on Monday

4 · What to watch

Four data points will show whether the reactions hold

11 – 13 Nov
+3 and +5-day reaction windows
Do the day-1 moves stick or reverse?
4 Dec · Kaspi
NBK base-rate decision (now 15.75%)
Further cuts speed up Kaspi's funding-cost relief, the core of its 2027 earnings case.
4Q results, early 2027 · Kaspi
GMV vs the new ~12% target; 2027 guidance; buyback decision
Shows whether growth re-accelerates once the tenge stabilises.
9 Jan 2027 · TBC
Uzbek auto-collection restrictions take effect
Impact "too early to say"; NPLs at 11.8%. Full-year results in February. [T3 0:47:13]
Sources
  1. [K1] Kaspi.kz 3Q & 9M 2026 Financial Results, 9 Nov 2026 (page numbers) · Nasdaq
  2. [K2] Kaspi.kz 3Q 2026 results presentation (slide numbers)
  3. [K3] Kaspi.kz 3Q 2026 earnings call transcript, 9 Nov 2026
  4. [K4] Kaspi.kz 2Q & 1H 2026 Financial Results, 10 Aug 2026 (page numbers)
  5. [K5] Kaspi.kz 2Q 2026 earnings call transcript, 10 Aug 2026
  6. [T1] TBC Group 3Q and 9M 2026 Results Report, 6 Nov 2026 (page numbers) · press release
  7. [T3] TBC Group 3Q 2026 results call transcript, 6 Nov 2026 (timestamps)
  8. [T6] Alliance News via AJ Bell, 6 Nov 2026
  9. [T8] Reuters via MarketScreener, 9 Nov 2026
  10. [T9] UzDaily, 30 Oct 2026; Trend.az, 29 Oct 2026
  11. Prices: exchange closing prices (Nasdaq, London Stock Exchange) in USD; S&P 500, FTSE 250 and MSCI EM index levels; intraday timing from 15-minute exchange data.