Both stocks moved against their markets, so each reaction was about the company. Kaspi lowered a target and pushed its earnings recovery to 2027. TBC hit every target it had set, a week after a scare had knocked its shares down.
Prices rebased to 100 at each stock's last close before its results. Hover or tap the chart for daily detail.
Kaspi's business grew 18% in constant currency. The market reacted to what changed: the outlook.
The only guidance change; EBITDA guidance (~5%) was kept. The fall came within an hour of the 07:14 ET release, so the market reacted to the release, not the call.
A 14.9% funding cost (+150bp) ate the growth. Deposit-rate cuts and lower Türkiye spending are expected to help "particularly as we go through next year". [K1 p.17; K3]
Dividend unchanged at KZT1,000/ADS. A buyback is "a conversation for next year". New capex: 300 grocery stores by end-2027. [K3 Q&A, Citi]
The rally partly recovered a sharp drop eight days earlier. The results answered the question behind that drop.
All 2026–28 targets reaffirmed (loans 15%+, ROE 23%+). The shares opened ~7% higher on the release. [T1 p.5–6; T6]
The group (IFRS) numbers showed Uzbekistan stabilising, not deteriorating. Linking the 30 Oct drop to the local accounts is our inference, as no article names a cause.
European banks +1.6% and oil lower on 9 Nov. Peer BGEO also rose, but by less. A GEL50m buyback helps, though it is only ~0.5% of market cap. [T8; T6]
| Kaspi.kz | TBC | |
|---|---|---|
| Guidance | ✕Cut (GMV ~12%, was ~20%) | ✓All targets reaffirmed |
| Profit growth | ✕+1% | ✓+10%, a record |
| Top-line growth | ✓+18% constant currency (+1% reported) | ✓+10% |
| Risk / funding | ●Cost of risk flat; funding cost +150bp | ✓Cost of risk −0.3pp; NIM up |
| Capital returns | ●Unchanged; buyback deferred | ✓Dividend + new GEL50m buyback |
| Set-up going in | ●No scare to recover from | ✓Bar lowered by the 30 Oct drop |